Sore-Pitching
0x564f22744b7941ade18d5e0e4f347c30e3057026
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$30.9K
Total PnL
$4.1K
Realised
$3.2K
Win rate
91%
44 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30?
2484 shares @ 58.3¢·now 66.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.7K
$202.69
- NO
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
1942 shares @ 42.6¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$542.47
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?
1317 shares @ 18.5¢·now 86.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.1K
$895.69
- NO
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
1628 shares @ 60.6¢·now 70.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$153.29
- YES
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?
1838 shares @ 18.6¢·now 59.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.1K
$751.31
- YES
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on July 31, 2026?
1388 shares @ 31.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.0K
$610.94
- NO
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
1048 shares @ 85.1¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$927.48
$35.64
- YES
Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?
1469 shares @ 23.1¢·now 59.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$866.69
$528.00
- NO
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
1564 shares @ 41.7¢·now 51.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$805.66
$153.72
- YES
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
918 shares @ 61.4¢·now 85.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$787.95
$224.39
Recent activity
- REWARD$2.49Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$17.00Jul 28, 22:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$419.00Jul 28, 18:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$162.89Jul 28, 18:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill CZ post 0-19 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$245.00Jul 28, 18:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?$199.00Jul 28, 18:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$123.01Jul 28, 18:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?$989.88Jul 28, 18:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?$98.63Jul 28, 18:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$75.00Jul 28, 18:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$63.85Jul 28, 18:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?$32.06Jul 28, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $325,000 and $330,000 on September 30?$0.02Jul 28, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?$0.00Jul 28, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?$0.04Jul 28, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?$0.02Jul 28, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceXAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?$2.64Jul 28, 13:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$41.00Jul 28, 10:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?$447.38Jul 28, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?$0.02Jul 28, 04:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
91% win rate over 44 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
44 closed markets, 91% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $45.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 09:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 44 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.