Probable-Pup
0x569e6a1ae3f5c6e99a68cf789c1a838f33ccfdab
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
3
Open notional
$0.40
Total PnL
$-7.19
Realised
$-4.73
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
72 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.40
$-0.33
- YES
Will Ryan Dotson be the Republican Nominee for KY-06?
59 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.09
- YES
Will Catherine Fleming Bruce be the Democratic nominee for Senate in North Carolina?
16 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026?$0.43Jun 2, 02:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026?$0.25Jun 1, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026?$1.14May 30, 08:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027?$0.98May 30, 08:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027?$1.14May 30, 08:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$1.01May 30, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$1.08May 30, 08:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027?$0.98May 30, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027?$1.14May 30, 08:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$1.01May 30, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$1.08May 30, 08:53 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?$0.88May 30, 08:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 32 and 35 inclusive?$0.01May 30, 08:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 32 and 35 inclusive?$0.21May 30, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?$1.10May 30, 08:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 32 and 35 inclusive?$0.49May 30, 08:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Republican Party?$0.20May 30, 06:41 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?$0.88May 28, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?$1.10May 28, 20:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027?$1.06May 28, 20:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
12/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 11, 23:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 2, 02:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.