0x569fecafd5050e1f272c3bef8abda69b312f6c49
0x569fecafd5050e1f272c3bef8abda69b312f6c49
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$15.16
Total PnL
$-684.88
Realised
$-2.97
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
6 shares @ 56.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$6.25
$2.75
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET
5 shares @ 59.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$4.74
$1.95
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
4 shares @ 72.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$4.17
$1.17
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 4?
20 shares @ 14.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET
16 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
16 shares @ 38.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
15 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET
15 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-9.21
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
14 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 7?
14 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$1.04Jul 15, 09:47 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$1.31Jul 15, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$1.02Jul 15, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$2.06Jul 15, 09:23 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$2.67Jul 15, 09:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$2.04Jul 15, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$2.06Jul 15, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$2.06Jul 15, 08:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$3.20Jul 15, 08:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$2.05Jul 15, 08:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$3.24Jul 15, 08:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$2.05Jul 15, 08:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$2.05Jul 15, 08:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$2.97Jul 15, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$2.05Jul 15, 07:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$2.96Jul 15, 07:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$2.05Jul 15, 07:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET$2.97Jul 15, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET$2.05Jul 15, 07:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$2.04Jul 13, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $3.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 17:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 09:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.