Functional-Waterwheel
0x56d48e453f2d4cabf6d437dde988c454f783746f
Wallet digest
Activity score
33/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
91
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-8.9K
Realised
$-849.31
Win rate
7%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 91- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
799 shares @ 93.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-750.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1AM ET
433 shares @ 85.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-370.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
384 shares @ 88.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-340.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET
378 shares @ 86.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-326.57
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
339 shares @ 59.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
315 shares @ 63.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
247 shares @ 81.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
247 shares @ 81.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
235 shares @ 85.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET
233 shares @ 86.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET$0.00Jul 22, 07:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$0.22Jul 22, 07:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$1.02Jul 22, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$5.10Jul 22, 07:43 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET$6.03Jul 22, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET$5.06Jul 22, 07:25 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET$4.61Jul 22, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET$2.06Jul 22, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET$10.24Jul 22, 07:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET$1.59Jul 22, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET$1.03Jul 22, 07:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET$2.05Jul 22, 07:20 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$14.29Jul 22, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$1.01Jul 22, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$1.01Jul 22, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$10.11Jul 22, 07:08 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$2.80Jul 22, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$5.13Jul 22, 07:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$0.00Jul 22, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$1.07Jul 22, 07:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
7% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $19.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 05:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 07:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.