0x56e777a0ac58b25be414f8f29866e99ad5737c0b
0x56e777a0ac58b25be414f8f29866e99ad5737c0b
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
11
Open notional
$39.7K
Total PnL
$15.5K
Realised
$13.8K
Win rate
83%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
30937 shares @ 95.7¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$30.8K
$1.2K
- NO
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
2993 shares @ 94.8¢·now 95.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.9K
$27.62
- YES
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
2746 shares @ 90.3¢·now 96.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.7K
$179.67
- NO
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
1139 shares @ 63.1¢·now 88.4¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$1.0K
$288.16
- NO
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
808 shares @ 88.8¢·now 90.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$727.37
$9.92
- NO
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?
512 shares @ 88.1¢·now 96.4¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$493.07
$42.37
- NO
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
451 shares @ 87.9¢·now 97.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$441.42
$44.95
- NO
Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?
484 shares @ 75.9¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$331.54
$-35.80
- YES
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
12775 shares @ 2.5¢·now 2.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$312.99
$-6.21
- YES
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
2259 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$14.68
$-7.49
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$407.95Jul 28, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$331.65Jul 28, 15:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$267.40Jul 28, 14:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$39.76Jul 28, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$10.14Jul 28, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$10.96Jul 28, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$38.40Jul 28, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$38.40Jul 28, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$0.17Jul 28, 12:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$14.44Jul 28, 12:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$28.80Jul 28, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?$666.84Jul 28, 03:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?$295.03Jul 28, 03:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?$146.88Jul 28, 03:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?$367.34Jul 28, 02:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$647.66Jul 28, 02:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$305.28Jul 28, 01:06 UTC
- REWARD$8.54Jul 28, 00:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$784.41Jul 27, 22:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$1.29Jul 27, 21:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $245.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 15:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 16:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.