Murky-Crayon
0x574125fd65fc6a5605e37285fbd4ba02c3b7fb99
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
127
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$-45.9K
Realised
$16.26
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 127- NO
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
628 shares @ 53.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$367.56
$34.56
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
5110 shares @ 10.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$281.05
$-229.95
- YES
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
1172 shares @ 18.9¢·now 13.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$161.69
$-60.31
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
543 shares @ 24.5¢·now 20.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$108.30
$-24.70
- YES
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
3950 shares @ 5.6¢·now 2.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$84.53
$-137.47
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
4889 shares @ 1.8¢·now 1.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$66.00
$-22.00
- YES
US recession by end of 2026?
403 shares @ 33.0¢·now 12.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$48.36
$-84.64
- CLEVELAND GUARDIANS
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians
16621 shares @ 85.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-14.1K
- HORNETS
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)
8590 shares @ 78.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-6.7K
- YES
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2379 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-333.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.05Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?$470.43Jul 14, 17:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 9, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 8, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 7, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 6, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 5, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 4, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.