Definite-Tire
0x574b9971130e92913f0866b4a5f4cefb02688ee5
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$59.50
Total PnL
$-29.72
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will American Express (AXP) Q2 total revenue net of interest expense be above $20B?
29 shares @ 78.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$19.77
$-2.74
- NO
Will Blackstone (BX) Q2 total assets under management be above $1.35T?
20 shares @ 77.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$14.90
$-0.50
- YES
Will Elon post "Soccer" on X this week?
25 shares @ 59.0¢·now 29.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$7.25
$-7.50
- YES
Will Google (GOOGL) Q2 capital expenditures be above $49B?
16 shares @ 53.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$5.20
$-3.28
- YES
Will Manuel Bompard announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
49 shares @ 37.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Apr 23, 2027$5.10
$-12.86
- YES
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $7.25B by July 31?
8 shares @ 74.0¢·now 58.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$4.47
$-1.23
- YES
Will "Shocking" be in the headlines this week?
5 shares @ 29.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$1.07
$-0.38
- YES
Will Life Insurance Corporation of India be the largest Indian company?
20 shares @ 7.3¢·now 3.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.71
$-0.77
- YES
Will 3DMAX Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?
8 shares @ 12.4¢·now 6.2¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.46
$-0.47
- YES
Will Team Spirit have the shallowest hero pool at EWC 2026?
1 shares @ 7.0¢·now 30.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.33
$0.25
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the MI-10 House seat?$16.16Jul 12, 03:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Julian Alvarez score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3.71Jul 12, 03:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the announcers say "Blood," "Bloody," or "Bloodied" during Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista?$1.60Jul 12, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.0% and 0.2%?$0.49Jul 12, 02:55 UTC
- TRADESELLKash Patel out by July 31?$2.72Jul 12, 02:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYKash Patel out by July 31?$2.98Jul 12, 02:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the announcers say "Blood," "Bloody," or "Bloodied" during Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista?$13.60Jul 12, 02:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Core PCE MoM be 0.1% in June?$6.96Jul 12, 02:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Core PCE MoM be 0.1% in June?$17.98Jul 12, 02:43 UTC
- MERGEWill the Democratic Party win the MI-10 House seat?$22.13Jul 12, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the MI-10 House seat?$10.84Jul 12, 02:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Switzerland be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?$0.28Jul 12, 02:31 UTC
- TRADESELLUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?$0.20Jul 12, 02:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?$0.12Jul 12, 02:29 UTC
- MERGEWill Switzerland be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?$20.00Jul 12, 02:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?$18.88Jul 12, 02:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?$2.00Jul 12, 02:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google (GOOGL) Q2 capital expenditures be above $49B?$8.48Jul 12, 02:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill American Express (AXP) Q2 total revenue net of interest expense be above $20B?$22.51Jul 12, 01:41 UTC
- MERGEWill the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?$5.00Jul 12, 01:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $8.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 7, 09:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 03:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.