Gregarious-Bullfighter
0x57aa2b8ae0e09a52ad2d24c12c84d6fc964104c5
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$87.35
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$16.39
Win rate
88%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1000 shares @ 6.3¢·now 7.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$77.00
$14.05
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?
1000 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$7.50
$-1.82
- YES
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
100 shares @ 2.4¢·now 2.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.85
$0.45
- YES
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?
10000 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-135.76
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 20?
6060 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-6.06
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 20?
6060 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-6.06
- YES
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on March 20?
6060 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-6.06
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 20?
5050 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.05
- YES
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on March 20?
5050 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.05
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 20?
5050 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.05
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 2, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 1, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 30, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 29, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 26, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 25, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 24, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 23, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 22, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 21, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
88% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
9 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 9
- Avg trade size
- $44.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 31, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.