Playful-Smell
0x57d24e79420f43d603ba7fae451c798966d70789
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
33
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-313.78
Realised
$-8.97
Win rate
3%
33 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
488 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET
419 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
226 shares @ 21.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-49.61
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 22?
59 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.42
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 8?
30 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 8, 2026$0.00
$-12.07
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 11?
30 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.00
$-11.11
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 6?
28 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$0.00
$-12.61
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 7?
27 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$0.00
$-12.61
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on August 9?
26 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$0.00
$-12.07
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 11?
26 shares @ 43.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.00
$-11.11
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET$5.35Aug 18, 18:38 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$37.02Aug 18, 17:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$3.78Aug 18, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$25.57Aug 18, 17:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET$32.47Aug 18, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$25.75Aug 18, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET$25.40Aug 18, 17:07 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$0.00Aug 18, 16:28 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$0.00Aug 18, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$26.65Aug 18, 15:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 18?$7.00Aug 18, 15:56 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$0.00Aug 18, 15:56 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$0.00Aug 18, 15:56 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$64.73Aug 18, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$5.34Aug 18, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$5.24Aug 18, 15:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$25.31Aug 18, 15:51 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$6.90Aug 18, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$25.47Aug 18, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$25.73Aug 18, 15:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
64/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 33 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
33 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $18.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 18, 11:48 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 18:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 33 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.