Flimsy-Lute
0x5849c946be5a6895a83d004edccaa8c3191ca99e
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$13.19
Total PnL
$-80.36
Realised
$345.33
Win rate
93%
86 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?
702 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.56
$0.37
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in July?
990 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.48
$-3.45
- YES
Will BNB dip to $400 in July?
2540 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.27
$-3.70
- YES
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
750 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.13
$-0.87
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in July?
954 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.95
$-2.28
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in July?
775 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.78
$-1.07
- YES
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,500 in July?
601 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.60
$-0.80
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?
1085 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.54
$-5.59
- YES
Will BNB dip to $300 in July?
971 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.49
$-1.18
- YES
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
850 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.42
$-0.77
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$0.40Jul 28, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nvidia be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?$0.01Jul 28, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?$0.01Jul 28, 20:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in July?$0.03Jul 28, 19:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill XRP dip to $0.80 in July?$5.56Jul 28, 19:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$0.90Jul 28, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nvidia be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?$0.00Jul 28, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?$0.01Jul 28, 18:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in July?$0.10Jul 28, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$0.60Jul 28, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$0.40Jul 28, 16:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill XRP reach $1.60 in July?$0.58Jul 28, 16:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill XRP reach $1.60 in July?$2.72Jul 28, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?$0.00Jul 28, 16:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 in July?$1.33Jul 28, 15:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.03Jul 28, 15:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 28?$2.24Jul 28, 14:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill BNB reach $700 in July?$0.01Jul 28, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 28?$1.00Jul 28, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 28?$1.20Jul 28, 13:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
93% win rate over 86 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
86 closed markets, 93% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 03:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 20:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 86 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.