Fluid-Supernatural
0x58671aaf4b9012d4e2408b76c451e79ffc6dcc97
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$191.05
Total PnL
$-37.68
Realised
$2.51
Win rate
4%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
120 shares @ 68.3¢·now 89.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$107.40
$25.40
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 22.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$75.00
$31.00
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 41.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$8.65
$4.55
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 1?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 6?
70 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-5.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on July 25?
60 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25?
20 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22?
20 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 24?
20 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 13?
20 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.80
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?$20.32Aug 15, 18:08 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$8.20Aug 15, 03:27 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$48.40Aug 13, 16:37 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$155.84Aug 13, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 13?$3.90Aug 13, 15:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 13?$3.94Aug 13, 15:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 6?$10.00Aug 6, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 6?$5.82Aug 6, 09:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 5?$20.00Aug 5, 22:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 5?$5.00Aug 5, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 5?$4.60Aug 5, 13:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 3?$5.12Aug 3, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 3?$3.18Aug 3, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 31?$5.21Jul 31, 11:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$8.20Jul 28, 17:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$22.00Jul 27, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$22.00Jul 27, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?$20.00Jul 27, 19:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on July 25?$10.00Jul 25, 22:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$30.00Jul 25, 15:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
4% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $14.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 12:14 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 15, 18:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.