Exalted-Knifeedge
0x5868aba151062d97e9e896539d7508d038d964c8
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
68
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-525.75
Realised
$-19.41
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 68- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on May 7?
8000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 9?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14?
1024 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 17?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on May 8?
699 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 9?
591 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 8?
501 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 10?
409 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 8?
391 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 13?
361 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.09Jul 19, 04:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 19?$3.10Jul 19, 02:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 19?$3.09Jul 19, 02:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 20?$3.10Jul 19, 02:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 19?$11.25Jul 19, 02:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 18?$3.09Jul 18, 09:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 18?$0.18Jul 18, 09:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 18?$0.11Jul 18, 04:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 17?$8.02Jul 18, 04:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 18?$3.11Jul 18, 03:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 18?$3.11Jul 18, 03:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 17?$1.05Jul 18, 03:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 17?$2.90Jul 17, 16:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 17?$0.05Jul 17, 16:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 17?$6.11Jul 17, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 17?$3.08Jul 17, 13:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 17?$3.12Jul 17, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 17?$3.10Jul 17, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 19?$5.14Jul 17, 13:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 17?$13.50Jul 17, 09:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 12:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 04:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.