Excitable-Disruption
0x589adb5f4af77a146c719e1e740d4d43093f460b
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$8.56
Total PnL
$-9.68
Realised
$-0.07
Win rate
0%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- ANDRES SANTAMARTA
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic
1 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$1.18
$0.18
- NO
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.14
$-0.00
- NO
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$1.08
$-0.00
- NO
Will Solana dip to $20 in June?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.08
$-0.00
- NO
Will XRP reach $2.00 in June?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.06
$-0.00
- NO
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.02
$-0.00
- NO
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.01
$-0.00
- YES
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top global Netflix movie this week?
1 shares @ 94.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.00
$0.00
- YES
Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.58
- YES
Will Cursed Daughters (Oyinkan Braithwaite) win Readers' Favorite Fiction in the 2025 Goodreads Choice Awards?
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 4, 2025$0.00
$-0.76
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June?$4.39Jun 25, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June?$5.50Jun 25, 08:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill XRP reach $2.00 in June?$5.23Jun 25, 08:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP reach $2.00 in June?$6.30Jun 25, 08:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Solana dip to $20 in June?$6.22Jun 25, 08:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $20 in June?$7.30Jun 25, 08:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US withdraw from NATO by June 30?$7.46Jun 25, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYPlovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic$1.00Jun 25, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US withdraw from NATO by June 30?$8.60Jun 25, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top global Netflix movie this week?$1.00Jun 25, 08:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?$9.97Jun 25, 08:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?$11.00Jun 25, 08:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?$11.98Jun 25, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?$13.00Jun 25, 07:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Quantinuum not IPO before August 2026?$1.00Jun 23, 03:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Quantinuum not IPO before August 2026?$3.98Jun 2, 03:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?$1.00Jun 2, 03:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Quantinuum not IPO before August 2026?$5.00Jun 2, 03:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Olujimi Brown win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?$1.00May 11, 03:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than $17m?$1.05Apr 16, 13:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $5.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 22, 04:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 25, 08:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.