Hospitable-Garage
0x58ceeb7f6c3ae7aff58cc68ff2f1f4c6e5a657c4
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$35.61
Total PnL
$-433.39
Realised
$-327.04
Win rate
7%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- NO
Will there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
20 shares @ 71.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$17.40
$3.20
- NO
Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?
28 shares @ 18.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$4.06
$-0.98
- YES
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
5 shares @ 38.4¢·now 62.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.88
$1.11
- NO
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?
3 shares @ 63.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$2.87
$0.89
- NO
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?
3 shares @ 78.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.60
$0.57
- YES
Greek snap election scheduled in 2026?
3 shares @ 45.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.75
$0.40
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
1 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$1.05
$0.07
- NO
Will Delta Q2 passenger load factor be between 83% and 85%?
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 51.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$1.02
$-0.04
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
3 shares @ 19.3¢·now 26.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.80
$0.21
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
4 shares @ 16.5¢·now 15.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.60
$-0.06
Recent activity
- REWARD$1.45Jul 8, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?$14.20Jul 7, 02:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?$5.04Jul 7, 02:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mai Vang win the CA-07 House seat?$3.87Jul 7, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mai Vang win the CA-07 House seat?$9.60Jul 7, 00:37 UTC
- REWARD$4.57Jul 7, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$12.00Jul 6, 22:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$12.24Jul 6, 22:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?$11.58Jul 6, 13:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$7.41Jul 6, 13:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?$13.00Jul 6, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$9.12Jul 6, 12:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Core PCE YoY be 3.6% in June?$4.42Jul 6, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE YoY be 3.6% in June?$6.00Jul 6, 09:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LOS Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2$13.65Jul 6, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LOS Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2$16.17Jul 6, 06:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?$12.50Jul 6, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?$8.55Jul 6, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?$5.95Jul 6, 01:13 UTC
- REWARD$4.61Jul 6, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
7% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $8.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 14:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 8, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.