Muddy-Garter
0x58eab2c37e960a5c0599500ca5f976eb555a08e0
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
52
Open notional
$244.10
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$-553.47
Win rate
0%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 52- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 23?
70 shares @ 88.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$70.32
$8.28
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 23?
21 shares @ 92.1¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$21.16
$1.63
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 23?
20 shares @ 97.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$20.20
$0.60
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 37°C on August 23?
20 shares @ 97.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$20.16
$0.56
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 23?
20 shares @ 97.0¢·now 98.0¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$19.80
$0.20
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 23?
20 shares @ 97.0¢·now 98.0¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$19.80
$0.20
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 23?
21 shares @ 90.5¢·now 80.0¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$16.89
$-2.22
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 23?
17 shares @ 90.5¢·now 90.5¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$15.46
$-0.01
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on August 23?
11 shares @ 97.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$10.59
$0.30
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on August 23?
10 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$10.35
$0.51
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 23?$19.20Aug 23, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 23?$15.54Aug 23, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on August 23?$9.90Aug 23, 17:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on August 23?$20.21Aug 23, 16:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 23?$20.21Aug 23, 16:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 23?$20.00Aug 23, 16:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 23?$20.21Aug 23, 16:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 23?$12.06Aug 23, 16:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 23?$20.12Aug 23, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 23?$19.63Aug 23, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 23?$19.63Aug 23, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on August 23?$9.86Aug 23, 15:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 23?$100.00Aug 23, 15:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on August 23?$10.06Aug 23, 15:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 23?$100.00Aug 23, 15:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 23?$37.51Aug 23, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 23?$8.70Aug 23, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 23?$5.99Aug 23, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 23?$19.61Aug 23, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 23?$19.63Aug 23, 11:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 30 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
30 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $19.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 22, 17:47 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 23, 17:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.