Scarce-Warden
0x592111469d7fda247f364e3a68db15278ae68d8e
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$3.56
Total PnL
$-21.73
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
27 shares @ 7.5¢·now 9.7¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$2.57
$0.57
- YES
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
25 shares @ 4.0¢·now 4.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.99
$-0.01
- YES
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
53 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during December FOMC Press Conference?
21 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 18, 2024$0.00
$-1.03
- YES
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League?
19 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.26
- YES
$PENGU market cap (FDV) $1-2b one day after launch?
17 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 18, 2024$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
$PENGU market cap (FDV) $2-4b one day after launch?
7 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 18, 2024$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before April?
3 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week?
2 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 24, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.03Jun 3, 18:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?$3.45Jun 3, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$10.24May 15, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.06May 8, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?$2.03May 8, 11:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?$0.00May 8, 11:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?$0.00May 8, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?$3.00May 5, 12:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?$1.02May 5, 12:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?$1.22Sep 23, 19:48 UTC
- REDEEMFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?$1.22Sep 23, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?$1.00Aug 22, 15:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Transgender" this week?$1.00Aug 18, 08:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 29-August 4?$1.10Aug 18, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 29-August 4?$1.00Jul 29, 16:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $3800 in July?$1.18Jul 29, 16:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "WSJ" or "Wall Street Journal" this week?$1.45Jul 29, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "WSJ" or "Wall Street Journal" this week?$1.00Jul 20, 10:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?$1.00Jul 20, 10:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $3800 in July?$1.00Jul 20, 10:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $2.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 13, 16:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 3, 18:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".