Assured-Warming
0x59314a635242711642a70663ea74cc8270c78ecb
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$6.17
Total PnL
$-275.21
Realised
$2.38
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 2?
100 shares @ 1.4¢·now 1.2¢·exp May 2, 2026$1.20
$-0.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 2?
100 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.5¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.55
$0.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 1?
110 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.4¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.44
$0.29
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 2?
86 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.39
$0.21
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 2?
29 shares @ 1.0¢·now 1.3¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.36
$0.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on May 2?
100 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.35
$0.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 1?
50 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.7¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.35
$-0.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 1?
25 shares @ 0.3¢·now 1.2¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.30
$0.22
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 2?
100 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.25
$-0.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on May 2?
100 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.3¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.25
$0.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 1?$0.7655s ago
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 30?$1.105m ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on April 30?$0.505m ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 1?$0.2712m ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 2?$0.2016m ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 2?$0.0221m ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 2?$0.0722m ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on May 1?$0.1524m ago
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 30?$1.9229m ago
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 1?$0.2834m ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 1?$0.0053m ago
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 30?$9.5956m ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 1?$0.0657m ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 1?$0.0957m ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 1?$0.1557m ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 1?$0.2057m ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30?$2.5058m ago
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 1?$1.1059m ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 30?$1.6059m ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 30?$1.501h ago
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- 1h ago
- Last active
- 55s ago
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".