Polished-Mantle
0x595799ce90ef97734c5a7691cece2fe6a8a9cbf9
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
47
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-71.87
Realised
$5.37
Win rate
70%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 47- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 11?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
19 shares @ 10.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 2?
19 shares @ 10.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET
16 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.40
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - February 6, 8PM ET
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET
12 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-3.59
- UP
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
11 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.99
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Renan Santos qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?$0.30Jul 6, 13:08 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET$0.00Jul 1, 03:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET$2.06Jul 1, 03:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET$2.27Jul 1, 03:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET$2.02Jul 1, 03:11 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET$2.03Jul 1, 03:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET$2.00Jul 1, 03:08 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET$1.19Jul 1, 03:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET$1.01Jul 1, 03:06 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET$1.02Jul 1, 03:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET$1.00Jul 1, 03:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET$1.05Jul 1, 03:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET$1.01Jul 1, 03:03 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$1.19Jul 1, 03:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$1.01Jul 1, 02:58 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$1.14Jul 1, 02:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$1.03Jul 1, 02:56 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET$1.01Jul 1, 02:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET$1.00Jul 1, 02:43 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$1.09Jun 30, 18:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
70% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $1.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 3, 18:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 6, 13:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.