Wallet digest

active

Activity score

66/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

147

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.3K

Realised

$35.57

Win rate

90%

103 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 147

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
999 shares @ 54.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026
$0.00
$-543.45
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET
600 shares @ 38.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026
$0.00
$-232.63
YES
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?
464 shares @ 42.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026
$0.00
$-198.47
LGD GAMING
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs
100 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026
$0.00
$-14.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET
100 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026
$0.00
$-28.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET
100 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET
80 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026
$0.00
$-40.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
20 shares @ 52.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026
$0.00
$-10.53
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET
20 shares @ 53.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026
$0.00
$-10.71
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
20 shares @ 55.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026
$0.00
$-11.11

Recent activity

TRADEBUYWill Spain win on 2026-07-19?$54.64Jul 19, 15:10 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Spain win on 2026-07-19?$149.51Jul 19, 15:08 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$1.55Jul 17, 00:45 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$0.00Jul 16, 09:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$95.20Jul 16, 09:34 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$0.00Jul 16, 09:31 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$7.23Jul 16, 09:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$4.05Jul 16, 09:27 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$0.00Jul 16, 09:10 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$94.03Jul 16, 09:10 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$0.00Jul 16, 09:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$46.07Jul 16, 09:04 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$11.83Jul 16, 09:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$5.17Jul 16, 09:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$26.26Jul 16, 09:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$20.74Jul 16, 09:02 UTC
REDEEMNorway vs. England: Both Teams to Score$48.00Jul 12, 00:00 UTC
TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: Both Teams to Score$30.80Jul 11, 16:53 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$2.64Jul 11, 13:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$4.90Jul 11, 12:57 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

87/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

90% win rate over 103 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

103 closed markets, 90% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity39 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry99 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk30 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 35
Avg trade size: $15.03
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 6, 15:02 UTC
Last active: Jul 19, 15:10 UTC
Win rate sample: 103 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 10:10:26 UTC·src:Polymarket Data