Wallet digest

active

Activity score

42/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-358.34

Realised

$-5.96

Win rate

31%

13 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 74

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7AM ET
101 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 11, 2025
$0.00
$-6.11
UP
XRP Up or Down - August 9, 12PM ET
101 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2025
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Solana Up or Down - October 30, 10PM ET
79 shares @ 50.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025
$0.00
$-40.00
UP
Solana Up or Down - August 10, 1AM ET
60 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2025
$0.00
$-1.01
UP
Solana Up or Down - November 3, 12AM ET
60 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2025
$0.00
$-21.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 8AM ET
30 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 18, 2025
$0.00
$-14.70
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5AM ET
30 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 27, 2025
$0.00
$-14.70
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12AM ET
30 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 12, 2025
$0.00
$-16.50
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2AM ET
30 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 23, 2025
$0.00
$-14.70
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4AM ET
30 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 11, 2025
$0.00
$-14.70

Recent activity

TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2AM ET$13.34Mar 10, 06:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2AM ET$5.96Mar 10, 05:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2AM ET$2.45Mar 10, 05:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2AM ET$2.45Mar 10, 05:29 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2AM ET$3.83Mar 10, 05:26 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 1AM ET$30.00Nov 18, 14:42 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 12AM ET$30.00Nov 18, 14:42 UTC
MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 9AM ET$30.00Nov 18, 14:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 9AM ET$14.70Nov 18, 14:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 9AM ET$14.70Nov 18, 13:59 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 8AM ET$14.70Nov 18, 13:00 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 7AM ET$13.76Nov 18, 12:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 7AM ET$8.33Nov 18, 11:59 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 7AM ET$5.88Nov 18, 11:59 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 7AM ET$0.49Nov 18, 11:59 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 6AM ET$13.50Nov 18, 11:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 6AM ET$14.70Nov 18, 10:58 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 5AM ET$13.50Nov 18, 10:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 5AM ET$14.70Nov 18, 09:58 UTC
MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 4AM ET$30.00Nov 18, 09:01 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

43/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

31% win rate over 13 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence43 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry84 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk39 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 45
Avg trade size: $11.90
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Nov 3, 04:11 UTC
Last active: Mar 10, 06:00 UTC
Win rate sample: 13 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 05:53:36 UTC·src:Polymarket Data