Quarterly-Comeback
0x5a223238b202d67c8bcf500cbb0e886813e917a6
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$15.7K
Total PnL
$471.12
Realised
$63.39
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
8931 shares @ 90.2¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.4K
$379.86
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
1875 shares @ 91.6¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.8K
$55.13
- NO
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?
1179 shares @ 93.3¢·now 98.6¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.2K
$61.44
- NO
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?
641 shares @ 78.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$560.90
$60.90
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
667 shares @ 75.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$540.44
$40.44
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
471 shares @ 84.9¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$435.62
$35.63
- YES
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?
372 shares @ 68.5¢·now 98.8¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$367.85
$112.85
- NO
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?
374 shares @ 55.6¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$300.93
$92.92
- NO
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
367 shares @ 46.4¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$258.70
$88.48
- NO
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?
259 shares @ 77.2¢·now 93.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$243.20
$43.20
Recent activity
- REWARD$4.02Aug 7, 20:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$284.09Aug 1, 09:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netanyahu wear a Yarmulke at next meeting with Trump?$46.54Aug 1, 07:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$106.38Aug 1, 06:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Catherine West be in the Burnham cabinet?$102.25Jul 29, 21:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 28, 2026?$538.28Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?$1.8KJul 28, 17:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jess Phillips be in the Burnham cabinet?$3.0KJul 28, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netanyahu wear a Yarmulke at next meeting with Trump?$41.89Jul 27, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?$101.91Jul 27, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?$101.96Jul 27, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$100.00Jul 26, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$100.00Jul 26, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$100.00Jul 26, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$250.00Jul 26, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 28, 2026?$500.00Jul 25, 10:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026?$100.00Jul 25, 10:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027?$200.80Jul 25, 10:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?$100.44Jul 25, 10:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?$100.52Jul 25, 10:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $260.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 16:14 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 20:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.