Wallet digest

active

Activity score

44/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-9.9K

Realised

$-108.93

Win rate

36%

14 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 9AM ET
2250 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2025
$0.00
$-3.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 5AM ET
1157 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2025
$0.00
$-14.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 10AM ET
1100 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2025
$0.00
$-10.00
YES
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?
1087 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2025
$0.00
$-283.10
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 2AM ET
1032 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2025
$0.00
$-4.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 7AM ET
1022 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2025
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 7AM ET
892 shares @ 52.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2025
$0.00
$-466.09
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 6AM ET
753 shares @ 44.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2025
$0.00
$-335.23
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 2PM ET
746 shares @ 89.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2025
$0.00
$-663.68
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 2PM ET
622 shares @ 45.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 27, 2025
$0.00
$-284.05

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 6PM ET$21.73Oct 1, 22:05 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5PM ET$21.73Oct 1, 22:04 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5PM ET$2.22Oct 1, 21:44 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 3PM ET$2.22Oct 1, 21:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 4PM ET$6.93Oct 1, 19:30 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 9AM ET$6.93Oct 1, 19:29 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 3PM ET$1.09Oct 1, 18:47 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 2PM ET$1.09Oct 1, 18:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 2PM ET$53.37Oct 1, 17:58 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 1PM ET$118.99Oct 1, 16:55 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12PM ET$8.22Oct 1, 16:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12PM ET$101.93Oct 1, 16:04 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11AM ET$41.21Oct 1, 15:59 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11AM ET$4.95Oct 1, 15:59 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11AM ET$28.12Oct 1, 15:59 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11AM ET$27.65Oct 1, 15:59 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11AM ET$50.46Oct 1, 14:55 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10AM ET$50.46Oct 1, 14:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10AM ET$24.47Oct 1, 13:48 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 9AM ET$24.47Oct 1, 13:47 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

39/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

36% win rate over 14 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence47 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry60 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk44 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 49
Avg trade size: $57.67
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Oct 1, 06:55 UTC
Last active: Oct 1, 22:05 UTC
Win rate sample: 14 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 02:46:39 UTC·src:Polymarket Data