Luminous-Cassock
0x5a449cc0b0830555908ae15f9b8574d7d1a25616
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
28
Open notional
$161.07
Total PnL
$8.70
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- YES
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
36 shares @ 89.8¢·now 91.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$33.35
$0.74
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
50 shares @ 42.2¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$23.25
$2.15
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
10 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$9.94
$-0.01
- NO
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 81.5¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.87
$1.72
- YES
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
12 shares @ 48.5¢·now 55.5¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$6.52
$0.82
- NO
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?
5 shares @ 97.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$5.00
$0.10
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 97.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.96
$0.11
- NO
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?
5 shares @ 87.0¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.96
$0.61
- NO
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?
5 shares @ 88.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$4.94
$0.54
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 24, 2026?
5 shares @ 96.0¢·now 98.4¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$4.92
$0.12
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$5.00Jul 24, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$12.90Jul 23, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$2.57Jul 22, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$5.63Jul 22, 17:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?$10.00Jul 22, 16:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by more than 15%?$14.69Jul 22, 16:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by more than 15%?$29.41Jul 22, 16:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by more than 15%?$9.81Jul 22, 16:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by more than 15%?$49.06Jul 22, 16:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?$20.00Jul 22, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?$9.99Jul 22, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?$19.96Jul 22, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$4.10Jul 22, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$4.05Jul 22, 10:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$9.20Jul 22, 10:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$9.12Jul 22, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$14.29Jul 22, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$9.95Jul 21, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$3.95Jul 21, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$4.55Jul 21, 11:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $11.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 23:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 00:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.