Multicolored-Casserole
0x5a7f8df634f7ab59ce94b970f5b2ad20770d6413
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
80
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$64.28
Realised
$52.78
Win rate
75%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 80- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 20?
60 shares @ 89.5¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$59.64
$5.94
- YES
Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?
60 shares @ 89.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$50.70
$-2.70
- YES
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?
54 shares @ 92.2¢·now 90.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$49.03
$-0.97
- NO
XRP all time high by December 31, 2026?
51 shares @ 88.3¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$46.30
$1.62
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
60 shares @ 75.5¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$45.90
$0.60
- NO
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
85 shares @ 52.3¢·now 53.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$45.48
$1.02
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 17?
70 shares @ 66.7¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$45.15
$-1.55
- YES
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
85 shares @ 42.5¢·now 43.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$36.55
$0.40
- YES
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?
60 shares @ 63.5¢·now 56.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$33.60
$-4.50
- YES
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?
60 shares @ 54.0¢·now 56.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.60
$1.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?$4.05Jul 15, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?$16.00Jul 15, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?$17.10Jul 15, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?$3.50Jul 15, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$0.92Jul 15, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$5.00Jul 15, 19:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$22.50Jul 15, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$22.80Jul 15, 19:37 UTC
- MERGEIran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?$10.00Jul 15, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?$21.00Jul 15, 19:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$7.65Jul 15, 19:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$31.80Jul 15, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 20, 2026?$14.80Jul 15, 19:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mohamed Salah play in Saudi Pro League next?$4.20Jul 15, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$12.00Jul 15, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP all time high by December 31, 2026?$44.68Jul 15, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?$1.35Jul 15, 18:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$5.60Jul 15, 18:44 UTC
- MERGEUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$60.00Jul 15, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$26.40Jul 15, 18:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $13.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 16:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 19:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.