Large-Pension
0x5a86c4925ea31b66f380f1a73c095132487b71b3
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
53
Open notional
$9.79
Total PnL
$-213.97
Realised
$-20.40
Win rate
0%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- NO
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
20 shares @ 51.2¢·now 50.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.79
$-0.21
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 34 and 38 million views on day 2?
11100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-11.10
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 50 million views on day 2?
4077 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 23?
629 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on March 24?
455 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-0.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 24?
455 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-0.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 23?
455 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-4.16
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 23?
455 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-0.63
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 24?
333 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-2.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 23?
333 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-4.35
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?$0.00Apr 11, 23:30 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$0.00Apr 11, 23:30 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$0.00Apr 11, 23:30 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$0.00Apr 11, 23:30 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - March 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$0.00Apr 11, 23:30 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - March 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$0.00Apr 11, 23:30 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$0.00Apr 11, 23:30 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET$0.00Apr 11, 23:30 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET$0.00Apr 11, 23:30 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - March 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$0.00Apr 11, 23:30 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - March 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$0.00Apr 11, 23:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20?$0.00Apr 11, 23:30 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6PM ET$0.00Apr 11, 23:29 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - March 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$0.00Apr 11, 23:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$0.00Apr 11, 23:29 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - March 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET$0.00Apr 11, 23:29 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - March 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$0.00Apr 11, 23:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$0.00Apr 11, 23:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$0.00Apr 11, 23:29 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - April 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$5.09Apr 11, 18:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $2.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 23, 16:25 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 11, 23:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.