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0x5ad847c5e1d198f3f8a0d16dd084418d3c15e58a
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.5K
Realised
$-28.57
Win rate
67%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?
2200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-11.70
- NO
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
1333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?
1010 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- NO
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
960 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.92
- NO
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
300 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?
300 shares @ 47.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-141.55
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET
276 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2026$0.00
$-121.33
- UP
XRP Up or Down - January 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET
246 shares @ 47.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-116.61
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$1.39Feb 10, 06:25 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$1.10Feb 10, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$3.08Feb 10, 06:18 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1AM ET$1.28Feb 10, 06:17 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1AM ET$1.60Feb 10, 06:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1AM ET$2.66Feb 10, 06:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1AM ET$0.76Feb 10, 06:13 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1AM ET$3.84Feb 10, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1AM ET$3.60Feb 10, 06:05 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11PM ET$3.67Feb 10, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10AM ET$0.00Feb 10, 05:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11PM ET$3.01Feb 10, 04:42 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10AM ET$0.00Feb 10, 04:38 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10AM ET$3.01Feb 10, 04:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10AM ET$2.17Feb 9, 15:51 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET$2.17Feb 9, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET$2.02Feb 9, 15:22 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10AM ET$1.75Feb 9, 15:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10AM ET$1.85Feb 9, 15:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$2.11Feb 9, 15:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $9.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 9, 05:07 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 10, 06:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.