Stiff-Sneakers
0x5ae0d910253c30d3e2d7de0eae071bed3e62a0f8
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
71
Open notional
$93.24
Total PnL
$-167.36
Realised
$-15.74
Win rate
0%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 71- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
23 shares @ 79.8¢·now 89.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$20.59
$2.23
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
24 shares @ 40.2¢·now 50.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$11.96
$2.44
- NO
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
7 shares @ 77.0¢·now 97.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.81
$1.42
- NO
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
7 shares @ 71.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.51
$1.40
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 13?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$5.30
$2.65
- UP
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 13?
5 shares @ 67.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$5.15
$1.70
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 14?
5 shares @ 52.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$4.73
$1.98
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on August 13?
5 shares @ 66.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$4.70
$1.60
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 14?
5 shares @ 69.1¢·now 78.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$4.09
$0.49
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
5 shares @ 79.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$3.77
$-0.23
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?$1.05Aug 13, 22:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?$2.72Aug 13, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?$2.01Aug 13, 22:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?$2.01Aug 13, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?$2.01Aug 13, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 14?$1.19Aug 13, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 14?$1.19Aug 13, 20:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 13?$10.33Aug 13, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Conversations with a Killer: The Charles Manson Tapes: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$3.41Aug 13, 16:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on August 13?$3.15Aug 13, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?$1.55Aug 13, 13:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 14?$3.66Aug 13, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 14?$1.38Aug 13, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 14?$2.82Aug 13, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 14?$3.46Aug 13, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 13?$3.50Aug 13, 06:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?$1.25Aug 13, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?$1.25Aug 13, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?$1.20Aug 13, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 13?$1.55Aug 13, 06:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $2.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 12:06 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 22:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.