Agitated-Silly
0x5b1e3deb588f30286c972c914a5690fa06e81dc1
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-119.05
Win rate
69%
111 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
1129 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-17.84
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?
1043 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on February 25?
1035 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-6.25
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14?
620 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-8.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 2?
550 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-7.18
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 3?
500 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-4.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on March 1?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET
495 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.76
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on August 7?
476 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 2?
475 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-4.75
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 14?$3.05Aug 14, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 14?$2.80Aug 13, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 8?$2.20Aug 8, 03:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 8?$0.20Aug 8, 02:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 8?$0.80Aug 8, 02:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 8?$0.20Aug 8, 01:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 8?$2.00Aug 8, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on August 9?$1.56Aug 8, 01:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 7?$0.13Aug 7, 08:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C or higher on August 7?$0.15Aug 7, 08:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on August 7?$0.05Aug 7, 08:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 7?$0.08Aug 7, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on August 7?$0.07Aug 7, 08:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 7?$0.03Aug 7, 07:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on August 7?$0.00Aug 7, 07:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on August 7?$0.04Aug 7, 07:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on August 7?$0.01Aug 7, 07:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 39°C on August 7?$0.01Aug 7, 07:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 7?$0.04Aug 7, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 7?$0.01Aug 7, 06:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
69% win rate over 111 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 21/100.
111 closed markets, 69% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 6, 23:24 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 01:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 111 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.