0x5b213eab7129bdcc78d7b82587c5c3e1fe715f56
0x5b213eab7129bdcc78d7b82587c5c3e1fe715f56
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-280.38
Realised
$-5.42
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7?
11476 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-11.48
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on March 7?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?
4553 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.55
- YES
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?
2000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
2000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 7?
1290 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-38.69
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-9.77
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 8?
846 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-39.97
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 7?
707 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-14.15
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?
600 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 9?$20.00Mar 24, 12:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$456.74Mar 24, 12:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 9?$0.00Mar 24, 12:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$0.00Mar 24, 12:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 9?$0.00Mar 24, 12:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 9?$51.02Mar 24, 12:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$0.00Mar 24, 12:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?$27.45Mar 10, 01:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 10?$5.00Mar 9, 14:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?$1.53Mar 9, 13:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?$40.38Mar 9, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 9?$9.60Mar 9, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?$8.80Mar 9, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?$41.20Mar 9, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?$49.94Mar 9, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 10?$0.01Mar 9, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 10?$0.01Mar 9, 06:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 10?$0.01Mar 9, 06:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 10?$0.01Mar 9, 06:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 10?$0.01Mar 9, 06:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $5.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 8, 14:00 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 24, 12:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.