Sparse-Formula
0x5b4d449335b79afbbecae9be20543fd9fa5f2adb
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
35
Open notional
$2.8K
Total PnL
$-889.24
Realised
$-113.60
Win rate
52%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- YES
Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day?
2501 shares @ 15.2¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$262.56
$-117.51
- YES
Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on IPO day?
1980 shares @ 15.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$227.72
$-69.72
- YES
Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?
1485 shares @ 13.3¢·now 13.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$200.47
$2.48
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
2615 shares @ 12.2¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$196.10
$-123.99
- YES
AI data center in space by December 31, 2027?
783 shares @ 24.5¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$191.72
$-0.08
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
885 shares @ 18.0¢·now 20.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$182.21
$23.00
- YES
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
1420 shares @ 12.4¢·now 12.5¢·exp May 30, 2027$177.47
$1.42
- YES
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $5B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
1120 shares @ 16.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$173.67
$-5.60
- YES
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?
900 shares @ 16.5¢·now 16.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$148.05
$-0.45
- YES
Will Discord’s market cap be between $8B and $11B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
580 shares @ 35.3¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$142.13
$-62.39
Recent activity
- REWARD$14.34Aug 20, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$21.00Aug 19, 22:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day?$45.77Aug 19, 22:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day?$5.50Aug 19, 22:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day?$3.73Aug 19, 22:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?$0.70Aug 19, 22:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?$0.70Aug 19, 22:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?$0.70Aug 19, 22:24 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.42Aug 19, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$19.89Aug 19, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$17.86Aug 18, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$13.38Aug 18, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$4.94Aug 18, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$1.90Aug 18, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$38.00Aug 18, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$0.95Aug 18, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$0.90Aug 18, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?$17.03Aug 18, 11:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?$160.00Aug 18, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$2.77Aug 18, 09:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
52% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $14.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.