Messy-Defeat
0x5b6b74831dfc10f23d4974734f70dfeb587821e7
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.3K
Realised
$62.08
Win rate
80%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
323 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET
317 shares @ 45.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-145.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6PM ET
299 shares @ 12.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-37.04
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
265 shares @ 51.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-136.69
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET
254 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-15.04
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5AM ET
231 shares @ 12.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-28.10
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
222 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
221 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
210 shares @ 17.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-37.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
201 shares @ 28.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-56.90
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET$104.83Jun 22, 23:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?$69.63Jun 22, 23:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET$268.52Jun 22, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET$141.32Jun 22, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET$135.38Jun 22, 22:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$150.51Jun 22, 22:44 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$20.88Jun 22, 10:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$0.12Jun 22, 10:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$1.00Jun 22, 10:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$1.00Jun 22, 10:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$9.76Jun 22, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$20.67Jun 22, 10:14 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$23.93Jun 22, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$15.56Jun 22, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$3.67Jun 20, 21:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$3.66Jun 20, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$1.95Jun 20, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$2.07Jun 20, 20:44 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$4.02Jun 20, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$2.13Jun 20, 20:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $22.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 22:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 22, 23:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.