Instructive-Larch
0x5b6e9bce6d8a533017e7f16987c9854c5da955b9
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-585.69
Realised
$12.46
Win rate
71%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on July 16?
98 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 21?
51 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 16?
50 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.17
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 16?
40 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 22?
37 shares @ 10.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 13?
34 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 18?
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on July 16?
20 shares @ 9.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.86
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on July 14?
20 shares @ 12.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.56
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 37°C on July 14?
20 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-4.20
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 22?$4.29Jul 22, 16:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 22?$4.55Jul 22, 15:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C on July 22?$1.16Jul 22, 15:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 22?$4.90Jul 22, 09:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 21?$1.02Jul 22, 02:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 22?$1.04Jul 22, 02:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 22?$3.40Jul 22, 02:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 22?$2.00Jul 22, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 22?$1.10Jul 22, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 22?$1.04Jul 22, 01:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 22?$3.31Jul 22, 01:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 22?$1.01Jul 22, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 22?$3.04Jul 22, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C on July 22?$1.01Jul 22, 01:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 22?$3.05Jul 22, 01:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 21?$6.71Jul 21, 16:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 21?$1.32Jul 21, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 21?$2.88Jul 21, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 21?$1.50Jul 21, 08:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 21?$2.18Jul 21, 08:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $2.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 07:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 16:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.