Probable-Watchmaker
0x5b8aadd7829995f835be83c76187fcc59bd67fd4
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-5.4K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
2620 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-3.48
- YES
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-26?
795 shares @ 98.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-780.63
- YES
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-12-18?
597 shares @ 88.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 18, 2025$0.00
$-525.02
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
548 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- TCU HORNED FROGS
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas Jayhawks
468 shares @ 94.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-441.76
- YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-25?
234 shares @ 94.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-220.00
- UNDER
FCV Farul Constanţa vs. Dinamo 1948: O/U 4.5
215 shares @ 92.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- UNDER
Kahrabaa Ismailia FC vs. Zamalek SC: O/U 3.5
213 shares @ 93.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- YES
Will Rio Ave FC win on 2025-12-20?
178 shares @ 84.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 20, 2025$0.00
$-149.80
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16?$39.78May 17, 11:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16?$75.95May 17, 11:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16?$251.60May 17, 11:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill FC Porto win on 2026-05-16?$22.05May 16, 17:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16?$37.08May 16, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16?$60.38May 16, 17:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16?$100.33May 16, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16?$60.38May 16, 15:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16?$50.31May 16, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?$1.02May 16, 15:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16?$309.30May 16, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FC Porto win on 2026-05-16?$17.12May 16, 14:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16?$200.16May 16, 13:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16?$100.12May 16, 13:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02?$54.35May 7, 10:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02?$227.27May 7, 10:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02?$100.36May 2, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02?$100.36May 2, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02?$50.12May 2, 13:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?$16.67May 2, 12:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $102.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 25, 15:39 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 11:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".