Velvety-Tic
0x5b93e18312b84c0eeda3dcf23e9ffb6ad7d88e5e
Wallet digest
Activity score
39/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
93
Open notional
$7.44
Total PnL
$-364.02
Realised
$-14.12
Win rate
0%
78 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 93- NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
30 shares @ 15.8¢·now 14.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.43
$-0.32
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
20 shares @ 22.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.50
$-2.90
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
14 shares @ 14.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.93
$-1.07
- YES
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
10 shares @ 4.6¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.39
$-0.07
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
5 shares @ 10.0¢·now 4.0¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$0.20
$-0.30
- YES
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?
10 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.01
$-0.39
- YES
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 5?
286 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 11?
217 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 4?$0.40Jul 30, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 4?$0.80Jul 30, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 4?$0.43Jul 30, 12:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$4.21Jul 30, 12:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.00Jul 29, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 30?$1.36Jul 29, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYSPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 29?$1.29Jul 29, 17:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$1.19Jul 29, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 27, 8AM ET$4.13Jul 27, 11:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 27, 8AM ET$4.14Jul 27, 10:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 27, 3AM ET$4.15Jul 27, 07:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$4.06Jul 27, 07:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 30?$1.88Jul 27, 02:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 30?$1.93Jul 27, 02:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYLos Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants$1.50Jul 25, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYLos Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants$5.14Jul 25, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYArizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals$5.14Jul 25, 20:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 23?$5.00Jul 24, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 24?$5.15Jul 23, 12:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lockheed Martin (LMT) beat quarterly earnings?$15.00Jul 23, 12:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 78 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
78 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $2.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 09:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 14:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 78 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.