Wallet digest

active

Activity score

29/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-150.19

Realised

$-4.46

Win rate

21 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 21

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
181 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
MALI
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Mali vs Rwanda
63 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?
56 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
49 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET
45 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
42 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00
SPURS
Spurs vs. Thunder
37 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026
$0.00
$-14.98
YES
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?
29 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
YES
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03?
25 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET$1.03Jul 23, 02:17 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$0.22Jul 23, 02:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$3.10Jul 23, 02:12 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$0.00Jul 23, 02:10 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$3.70Jul 23, 02:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$2.06Jul 23, 02:08 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$0.00Jul 23, 02:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$3.05Jul 23, 02:02 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$0.01Jul 22, 01:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$10.32Jul 22, 01:04 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$4.31Jul 22, 01:04 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$10.29Jul 22, 01:01 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$0.00Jul 22, 01:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$10.22Jul 22, 00:58 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$10.24Jul 22, 00:58 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$0.00Jul 22, 00:57 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$13.33Jul 22, 00:56 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$10.17Jul 22, 00:51 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET$0.00Jul 22, 00:49 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET$6.94Jul 22, 00:40 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

48/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 21 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity34 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence70 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry52 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk37 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 22
Avg trade size: $6.18
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 21, 18:53 UTC
Last active: Jul 23, 02:17 UTC
Win rate sample: 21 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 05:23:13 UTC·src:Polymarket Data