Ideal-Laboratory
0x5bc39e3d89a37c5d44312102b332497fce59b0ae
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$53.23
Total PnL
$-7.7K
Realised
$46.05
Win rate
44%
52 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 29?
125 shares @ 19.6¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$25.63
$1.17
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 29?
85 shares @ 29.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$19.13
$-5.52
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 29?
125 shares @ 8.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$8.12
$-1.87
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on July 29?
371 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.19
$-18.01
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on July 29?
350 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.17
$-2.59
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 5?
1950 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-43.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 5?
1891 shares @ 12.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-228.35
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 5?
1403 shares @ 24.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-338.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 5?
1256 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-2.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 23?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on July 29?$3.15Jul 29, 02:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on July 29?$5.01Jul 29, 02:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 28?$125.00Jul 28, 22:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 29?$0.41Jul 28, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 29?$0.40Jul 28, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 29?$0.09Jul 28, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 29?$0.15Jul 28, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 29?$0.10Jul 28, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 29?$0.23Jul 28, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 29?$0.56Jul 28, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 29?$0.09Jul 28, 15:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 29?$25.53Jul 28, 15:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 29?$25.44Jul 28, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on July 29?$2.91Jul 28, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 28?$0.15Jul 28, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on July 29?$9.06Jul 28, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 29?$2.19Jul 28, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 29?$6.06Jul 28, 15:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 28?$1.94Jul 28, 15:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 28?$0.15Jul 28, 15:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 52 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
52 closed markets, 44% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $8.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 17:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 02:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 52 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.