Gloomy-Rugby-Footstool
0x5bdc385f60f2f7ded247d5e1ef7136ee7f97e076
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
46
Open notional
$386.71
Total PnL
$-227.39
Realised
$2.59
Win rate
55%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 13?
203 shares @ 98.4¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$202.05
$2.05
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 13?
102 shares @ 98.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$101.48
$1.48
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
52 shares @ 96.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$47.66
$-2.34
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 13?
50 shares @ 75.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$35.52
$-1.97
- YES
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?
3667 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-45.93
- YES
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?
1007 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 3?
48 shares @ 20.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-9.68
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 23?
40 shares @ 14.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27?
30 shares @ 16.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 7?
28 shares @ 60.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-17.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$50.14Jul 13, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 13?$37.96Jul 13, 13:09 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$31.70Jul 13, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$30.47Jul 13, 13:02 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET$46.27Jul 13, 12:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET$38.79Jul 13, 12:48 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$0.00Jul 13, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$42.11Jul 13, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$40.14Jul 13, 12:12 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$44.03Jul 13, 12:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$40.08Jul 13, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 13?$100.10Jul 13, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 13?$200.16Jul 13, 11:58 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$0.00Jul 10, 14:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$1.60Jul 10, 13:51 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$0.00Jul 10, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$1.04Jul 10, 13:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 10?$2.50Jul 10, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$3.12Jul 10, 13:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$0.23Jul 10, 13:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
55% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $17.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 22:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 13:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.