Wallet digest

active

Activity score

33/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-12.7K

Realised

$-3.6K

Win rate

140 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

OVER
Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5
1111 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026
$0.00
$-400.00
YES
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13?
969 shares @ 48.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026
$0.00
$-474.25
PREDATORS
Sharks vs. Predators
843 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026
$0.00
$-480.45
OVER
RB Leipzig vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5
754 shares @ 59.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026
$0.00
$-448.17
OVER
Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5
741 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026
$0.00
$-400.00
OVER
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5
487 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026
$0.00
$-131.41
YES
Exact Score: Any Other Score?
460 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026
$0.00
$-2.30
OVER
FC Barcelona vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5
405 shares @ 73.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026
$0.00
$-296.00
OVER
United States vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5
369 shares @ 9.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026
$0.00
$-36.14
OVER
Mexico vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5
344 shares @ 57.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026
$0.00
$-198.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYWill Aston Villa win on 2026-08-12?$0.33Aug 12, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYSK Rapid Wien vs. Paide Linnameeskond: O/U 3.5$5.22Aug 12, 02:20 UTC
TRADEBUYSK Rapid Wien vs. Paide Linnameeskond: O/U 2.5$9.46Aug 12, 02:18 UTC
REDEEMFK Kauno Žalgiris vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 2.5$15.00Aug 11, 19:09 UTC
TRADEBUYFK Kauno Žalgiris vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 2.5$8.73Aug 11, 12:41 UTC
TRADEBUYBoston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays$1.17Aug 11, 01:46 UTC
TRADEBUYSE Palmeiras vs. SC Internacional: O/U 1.5$4.95Aug 9, 20:18 UTC
TRADEBUYKremser SC vs. SC Austria Lustenau: O/U 2.5$0.10Jul 25, 18:00 UTC
TRADEBUYKremser SC vs. SC Austria Lustenau: O/U 2.5$4.13Jul 25, 17:58 UTC
TRADEBUYKremser SC vs. SC Austria Lustenau: O/U 1.5$12.46Jul 25, 17:54 UTC
TRADEBUYKremser SC vs. SC Austria Lustenau: O/U 1.5$7.04Jul 25, 17:54 UTC
REDEEMLiaoning Tieren FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 0.5$1.75Jul 25, 17:33 UTC
TRADEBUYSV Wals-Grünau vs. SV Austria Salzburg: Both Teams to Score$1.08Jul 25, 14:08 UTC
TRADEBUYWuhan San Zhen FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 1.5$1.04Jul 25, 13:56 UTC
TRADEBUYWuhan San Zhen FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: Both Teams to Score$0.01Jul 25, 13:20 UTC
TRADEBUYWuhan San Zhen FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: Both Teams to Score$5.09Jul 25, 13:19 UTC
TRADESELLLiaoning Tieren FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 1.5$2.29Jul 25, 13:15 UTC
TRADEBUYLiaoning Tieren FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 1.5$1.04Jul 25, 13:08 UTC
TRADEBUYLiaoning Tieren FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 0.5$1.02Jul 25, 13:08 UTC
REDEEMHouston Dash vs. Bay FC: O/U 0.5$7.00Jul 25, 04:08 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

61/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

6% win rate over 140 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

140 closed markets, 6% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity71 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry49 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk27 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 44
Avg trade size: $5.83
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 24, 00:45 UTC
Last active: Aug 12, 20:30 UTC
Win rate sample: 140 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 03:52:00 UTC·src:Polymarket Data