Guilty-Tension
0x5c3a8226e0dbca7af530b653b6afba17eeba58d3
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-74.96
Realised
$-2.14
Win rate
0%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 29?
60 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-0.12
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 29?
60 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-0.42
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 5?
60 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-0.74
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 76°F or higher on July 2?
60 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-0.24
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on July 4?
60 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-0.84
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 30?
60 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.18
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C or below on June 30?
60 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.06
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on July 1?
60 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 28?
60 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on July 2?
60 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-0.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 38°C on July 31?$14.86Jul 29, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on July 30?$14.86Jul 29, 12:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 29?$15.32Jul 29, 12:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 29?$15.00Jul 29, 12:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 30?$0.18Jul 29, 08:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 30?$3.76Jul 29, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 30?$4.00Jul 29, 06:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 31?$1.98Jul 29, 04:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on July 30?$3.96Jul 29, 03:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on July 30?$4.00Jul 29, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 30?$14.86Jul 29, 01:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on July 30?$14.87Jul 29, 01:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on July 30?$1.98Jul 29, 00:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 28?$5.00Jul 28, 23:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on July 28?$15.15Jul 28, 22:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 28?$5.00Jul 28, 22:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on July 28?$2.04Jul 28, 22:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 28?$5.00Jul 28, 22:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 28?$5.00Jul 28, 22:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 28?$15.32Jul 28, 21:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $6.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 22:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 13:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.