0x5c4c64f1364b5b893263640d89c44f03d8b0e4b3
0x5c4c64f1364b5b893263640d89c44f03d8b0e4b3
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
129
Open notional
$5.04
Total PnL
$-422.97
Realised
$-165.51
Win rate
5%
64 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 129- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 5?
5 shares @ 55.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$5.04
$2.27
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 23?
830 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-22.42
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 69°F or below on March 24?
598 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-4.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on May 1?
500 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 21?
435 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-5.22
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 20?
400 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-7.88
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 21?
397 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.19
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 24?
311 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-15.55
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 13?
222 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.11
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 29?
214 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-7.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 6?$0.72May 6, 01:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 6?$0.31May 6, 01:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 5?$1.37May 5, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 5?$0.21May 5, 19:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 5?$0.84May 5, 19:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 5?$0.83May 5, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 5?$1.05May 5, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 5?$0.72May 5, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 5?$0.30May 5, 16:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 5?$1.39May 5, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 5?$0.57May 5, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 5?$0.44May 5, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on May 6?$0.06May 5, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 5?$0.10May 5, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 5?$0.11May 5, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 5?$0.20May 5, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 5?$0.20May 5, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 5?$0.42May 5, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 5?$1.06May 5, 11:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on May 5?$0.34May 5, 11:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
5% win rate over 64 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
64 closed markets, 5% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 5, 04:02 UTC
- Last active
- May 6, 01:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 64 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.