Compassionate-Font
0x5c5d05b3a347653067f81e94208a24dc87941e18
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
81
Open notional
$590.86
Total PnL
$-2.9K
Realised
$-53.79
Win rate
0%
53 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 81- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on August 16?
100 shares @ 99.8¢·now 92.3¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$92.42
$-7.58
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on August 16?
100 shares @ 99.8¢·now 84.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$84.12
$-15.88
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 16?
50 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$50.07
$0.08
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on August 16?
51 shares @ 98.8¢·now 92.5¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$46.81
$-3.19
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 16?
40 shares @ 99.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$40.16
$0.17
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 15?
40 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$40.14
$0.14
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 15?
31 shares @ 96.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$31.02
$1.02
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C or below on August 16?
21 shares @ 95.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$20.89
$0.89
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 16?
20 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$20.40
$0.40
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 16?
20 shares @ 98.5¢·now 98.9¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$20.09
$0.09
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 15?$20.12Aug 15, 23:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 15?$5.26Aug 15, 23:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 15?$200.40Aug 15, 22:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 15?$100.31Aug 15, 22:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 15?$100.15Aug 15, 22:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 15?$20.38Aug 15, 22:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 15?$10.10Aug 15, 22:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or below on August 15?$10.10Aug 15, 22:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 15?$66.25Aug 15, 21:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on August 15?$30.74Aug 15, 16:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on August 15?$20.08Aug 15, 16:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 15?$20.06Aug 15, 16:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 15?$60.30Aug 15, 16:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 15?$55.97Aug 15, 16:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 15?$40.82Aug 15, 15:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 15?$5.05Aug 15, 12:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 36°C on August 14?$15.08Aug 14, 23:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 14?$156.25Aug 14, 21:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 14?$88.16Aug 14, 21:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on August 14?$214.82Aug 14, 21:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 53 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
53 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $29.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 14, 09:04 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 15, 23:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 53 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.