Made-Up-Upstairs
0x5c9e7f12335a5a6949094704565664a7d8983a21
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.4K
Total PnL
$-8.1K
Realised
$-26.72
Win rate
44%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 29?
323 shares @ 35.3¢·now 53.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$172.98
$58.98
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on July 29?
174 shares @ 79.5¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$159.53
$20.85
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on July 30?
176 shares @ 80.8¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$150.07
$8.23
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 29?
200 shares @ 71.4¢·now 67.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$134.88
$-7.86
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 29?
145 shares @ 78.7¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$122.37
$8.41
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on July 30?
137 shares @ 78.5¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$115.49
$8.12
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 29?
215 shares @ 27.9¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$113.07
$52.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on July 29?
202 shares @ 48.9¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$93.86
$-4.84
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 29?
271 shares @ 18.5¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$66.50
$16.24
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 30?
169 shares @ 33.7¢·now 30.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$50.69
$-6.18
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 30?$21.22Jul 29, 02:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 29?$13.86Jul 29, 02:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 30?$5.23Jul 29, 02:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 29?$0.91Jul 29, 01:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 29?$1.62Jul 29, 01:11 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$2.94Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 30?$7.36Jul 29, 00:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 30?$7.56Jul 29, 00:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 28?$10.78Jul 28, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on July 30?$16.67Jul 28, 23:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 30?$6.52Jul 28, 23:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 29?$7.47Jul 28, 23:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 28?$7.99Jul 28, 23:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 28?$19.92Jul 28, 23:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 30?$3.16Jul 28, 23:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 30?$7.73Jul 28, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 30?$6.14Jul 28, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 29?$6.17Jul 28, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 29?$35.65Jul 28, 23:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 29?$2.80Jul 28, 23:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $21.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 17:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 02:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.