Wallet digest

profitable

Activity score

100/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$76.33

Total PnL

$7.8K

Realised

$12.3K

Win rate

82%

137 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

NO
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-07-29?
51 shares @ 52.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026
$50.70
$23.86
NO
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-07-29?
54 shares @ 44.5¢·now 47.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026
$25.47
$1.58
YES
Exact Score: Any Other Score?
82 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026
$0.04
$-4.80
YES
Exact Score: SC Internacional 2 - 0 CR Flamengo?
67 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026
$0.03
$-3.93
YES
Exact Score: SC Internacional 2 - 2 CR Flamengo?
65 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026
$0.03
$-3.74
YES
Exact Score: SC Internacional 0 - 1 CR Flamengo?
53 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026
$0.03
$-3.49
YES
Exact Score: SC Internacional 0 - 0 CR Flamengo?
50 shares @ 7.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026
$0.03
$-3.76
OVER
England vs. Argentina: England O/U 2.5
1576 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026
$0.00
$-1.58
ARGENTINA
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)
1037 shares @ 8.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026
$0.00
$-85.09
YES
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Argentina?
940 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026
$0.00
$-42.88

Recent activity

TRADEBUYUtah Royals FC vs. Washington Spirit: O/U 2.5$8.25Jul 30, 00:55 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Utah Royals FC win on 2026-07-29?$5.40Jul 30, 00:49 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$15.07Jul 30, 00:45 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Utah Royals FC vs. Washington Spirit end in a draw?$4.32Jul 30, 00:40 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Utah Royals FC win on 2026-07-29?$5.55Jul 30, 00:39 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Utah Royals FC vs. Washington Spirit end in a draw?$6.78Jul 30, 00:37 UTC
TRADEBUYUtah Royals FC vs. Washington Spirit: O/U 2.5$6.60Jul 30, 00:34 UTC
REDEEMWill CA River Plate win on 2026-07-29?$28.04Jul 30, 00:31 UTC
REDEEMExact Score: Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata 2 - 1 CA River Plate?$30.00Jul 30, 00:31 UTC
REDEEMGimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata vs. CA River Plate: O/U 2.5$28.22Jul 30, 00:30 UTC
MERGEWill MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol end in a draw?$15.00Jul 30, 00:29 UTC
MERGEExact Score: Fluminense FC 3 - 2 EC Bahia?$25.00Jul 30, 00:29 UTC
TRADEBUYWill CA Platense win on 2026-07-29?$1.25Jul 30, 00:29 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: EC Vitória 0 - 2 SE Palmeiras?$13.35Jul 30, 00:29 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Fluminense FC 3 - 2 EC Bahia?$24.20Jul 30, 00:29 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Instituto AC Córdoba 2 - 1 CA Platense?$13.65Jul 30, 00:29 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Fluminense FC 3 - 1 EC Bahia?$0.84Jul 30, 00:28 UTC
TRADEBUYWill MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol end in a draw?$2.40Jul 30, 00:28 UTC
CONVERSIONFC Rottach-Egern vs. Bayern Munich$50.00Jul 30, 00:28 UTC
MERGEExact Score: Fluminense FC 0 - 0 EC Bahia?$10.00Jul 30, 00:27 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

74/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

82% win rate over 137 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

137 closed markets, 82% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity69 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry33 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk44 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 37
Avg trade size: $7.85
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 30, 00:16 UTC
Last active: Jul 30, 00:55 UTC
Win rate sample: 137 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 00:56:14 UTC·src:Polymarket Data