Even-Fallacy
0x5cc9cd0b0b97cb4bc544dc78e1ec11a629d632ce
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
7102 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
1772 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-98.00
- YES
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20?
1000 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime?
808 shares @ 24.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- YES
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-20?
442 shares @ 27.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-122.00
- YES
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
436 shares @ 45.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- YES
Will Deni Avdija win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP?
423 shares @ 6.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-27.00
- DOWN
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 4?
372 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-175.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?$478.75May 30, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?$203.25May 30, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?$253.59May 30, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYParis Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime?$204.51May 30, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20?$100.00Mar 20, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-20?$122.00Mar 20, 21:40 UTC
- TRADESELLSpread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)$1.0KMar 17, 21:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)$552.00Mar 17, 20:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11?$813.14Mar 11, 22:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11?$1.0KMar 11, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11?$520.80Mar 11, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11?$350.00Mar 11, 19:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10?$652.42Mar 10, 19:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10?$218.39Mar 10, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10?$542.05Mar 10, 19:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10?$542.04Mar 10, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10?$229.00Mar 10, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10?$225.00Mar 10, 16:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?$162.71Mar 10, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?$150.00Mar 8, 14:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $469.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 10, 21:25 UTC
- Last active
- May 30, 18:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.