Wallet digest

active

Activity score

42/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$8.17

Total PnL

$-35.83

Realised

$-0.75

Win rate

29 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 34

YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 15?
4 shares @ 27.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026
$3.70
$2.70
NO
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?
6 shares @ 34.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$1.97
$-0.03
NO
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 15, 2026?
2 shares @ 86.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026
$1.71
$-0.29
YES
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in August?
3 shares @ 37.2¢·now 29.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026
$0.79
$-0.21
YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 15?
2 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 15, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - August 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - August 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET
61 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET
59 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
56 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - August 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
27 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$2.33Aug 15, 13:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$1.04Aug 15, 13:13 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$1.05Aug 15, 13:11 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$1.06Aug 15, 13:08 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$1.06Aug 15, 13:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$1.04Aug 15, 13:05 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$5.78Aug 15, 13:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$1.06Aug 15, 13:01 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$1.04Aug 15, 13:01 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$1.05Aug 15, 13:00 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$4.55Aug 15, 12:56 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$3.05Aug 15, 12:54 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$1.05Aug 15, 12:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$1.05Aug 15, 12:53 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - August 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$1.06Aug 15, 12:52 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$1.07Aug 15, 12:51 UTC
TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - August 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET$0.08Aug 15, 12:49 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET$1.06Aug 15, 12:49 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET$0.88Aug 15, 12:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET$1.06Aug 15, 12:47 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

55/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

7% win rate over 29 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

29 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity71 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence97 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry32 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk34 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 44
Avg trade size: $1.19
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 15, 12:05 UTC
Last active: Aug 15, 13:16 UTC
Win rate sample: 29 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 20:56:45 UTC·src:Polymarket Data