Thoughtful-Phenomenon-Effector
0x5cd65c62c17c3faa6561ae5a408e8423815d2026
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
172
Open notional
$1.68
Total PnL
$-171.45
Realised
$2.43
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 172- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 20-26?
24 shares @ 4.1¢·now 3.1¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$0.76
$-0.24
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 23?
23 shares @ 8.9¢·now 1.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.33
$-1.67
- UP
Solana Up or Down on July 23?
44 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.6¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.27
$-1.73
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 23?
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 2.3¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.23
$-0.77
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down on July 23?
6 shares @ 17.0¢·now 1.7¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.10
$-0.90
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
116 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
XRP Up or Down - July 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - July 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
XRP Up or Down - July 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$0.16Jul 23, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$1.07Jul 23, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$1.07Jul 23, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$1.07Jul 23, 13:19 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$0.00Jul 23, 13:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$0.11Jul 23, 13:16 UTC
- REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - July 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$0.00Jul 23, 13:16 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$0.00Jul 23, 13:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$0.00Jul 23, 13:16 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$0.00Jul 23, 13:16 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$0.00Jul 23, 13:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down on July 23?$1.07Jul 23, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$1.07Jul 23, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$1.07Jul 23, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$1.07Jul 23, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$1.07Jul 23, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$1.07Jul 23, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$1.06Jul 23, 13:09 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$0.06Jul 23, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$1.07Jul 23, 13:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 12:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 13:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.