Wallet digest

active

Activity score

57/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$38.21

Total PnL

$-182.13

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 17

NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 15?
24 shares @ 39.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$23.77
$14.43
YES
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1818 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$13.64
$-6.36
YES
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
5 shares @ 43.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 6, 2026
$0.80
$-1.17
YES
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?
1667 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
1250 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
YES
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
1053 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 15?
28 shares @ 33.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-9.35
NO
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?
24 shares @ 96.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-23.36
NO
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on April 21?
19 shares @ 50.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026
$0.00
$-9.75
NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 21?
19 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026
$0.00
$-9.76

Recent activity

YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:17 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:17 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 23, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 22, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 21, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 20, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 19, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 18, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 17, 00:18 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 16, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 15, 00:11 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

review

3 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity45 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence0 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry71 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk65 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 3
Avg trade size: $14.20
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 21, 16:18 UTC
Last active: Jul 4, 00:13 UTC
Win rate sample: 0 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 00:22:04 UTC·src:Polymarket Data