Loving-Donation
0x5d15eb0cb735b538a0c16aad53097468349723bd
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.2K
Realised
$-36.03
Win rate
50%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
13000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-23.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
4138 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
1109 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-60.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
964 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-49.35
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$1.07May 13, 13:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$1.06May 13, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$1.05May 13, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$1.04May 13, 13:42 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$5.82May 13, 13:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$1.06May 13, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET$1.06May 13, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$1.07May 13, 12:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET$0.51May 13, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET$1.69May 13, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$1.07May 12, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$1.07May 11, 20:39 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$7.54May 11, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$8.01May 11, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$6.30May 11, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$1.07May 11, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$2.14May 11, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$2.22May 11, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$5.21May 11, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET$2.08May 11, 19:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $3.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 8, 10:38 UTC
- Last active
- May 13, 13:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.