Unacceptable-Smoking
0x5d6ce2ad3c1e82fc1becc5aab8229b4665fc6249
Wallet digest
Activity score
98/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$92.76
Total PnL
$36.76
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
31 shares @ 16.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$31.25
$26.25
- YES
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?
16 shares @ 32.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$15.63
$10.63
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
12 shares @ 42.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.90
$6.90
- NO
José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero arrested by March 31?
11 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$10.99
$0.99
- NO
Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?
8 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$8.20
$3.20
- YES
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?
6 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$5.62
$0.62
- YES
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Aragon Regional Election?
5 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$5.32
$0.32
- YES
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January?
2 shares @ 48.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$2.08
$1.08
- YES
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
24 shares @ 21.1¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.78
$-3.22
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 13, 01:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 12, 00:58 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 11, 00:27 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 8, 00:44 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 7, 00:54 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 6, 00:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 5, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 4, 00:54 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 24, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 22, 00:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 21, 00:28 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 20, 00:56 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 19, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 18, 00:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $5.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 20, 20:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.