Wallet digest

active

Activity score

33/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.2K

Realised

$-6.88

Win rate

14 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 28

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
863 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-431.34
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET
505 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-5.05
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET
400 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET
260 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-10.50
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
200 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-88.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET
200 shares @ 49.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-98.57
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
100 shares @ 99.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-99.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
80 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-40.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET
57 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00
ARGENTINA
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
50 shares @ 41.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026
$0.00
$-20.75

Recent activity

TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$21.36Jul 19, 18:30 UTC
REDEEMEngland vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$10.00Jul 15, 21:18 UTC
TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$4.60Jul 15, 16:13 UTC
REDEEMFrance vs. Spain: Team to Advance$5.00Jul 14, 21:33 UTC
TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Team to Advance$2.22Jul 14, 17:15 UTC
REDEEMArgentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance$10.00Jul 12, 04:00 UTC
TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance$6.88Jul 12, 03:27 UTC
TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: Team to Advance$1.83Jul 11, 11:26 UTC
REDEEMSpain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance$10.00Jul 10, 21:21 UTC
TRADEBUYSpain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance$7.40Jul 10, 18:47 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$10.00Jul 9, 21:43 UTC
REDEEMWill Argentina win on 2026-07-03?$0.42Jul 9, 20:10 UTC
TRADEBUYFrance vs. Morocco: Team to Advance$6.91Jul 9, 19:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$2.85Jul 4, 06:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$1.21Jul 4, 06:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$5.00Jul 4, 06:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$10.00Jul 4, 06:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$2.50Jul 4, 06:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$69.41Jul 4, 06:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$10.00Jul 4, 06:15 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

41/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

7% win rate over 14 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity40 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence47 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry68 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk42 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 40
Avg trade size: $34.27
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 3, 20:42 UTC
Last active: Jul 19, 18:30 UTC
Win rate sample: 14 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 07:41:25 UTC·src:Polymarket Data